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Kolkata: Swiss brokerage UBS<\/a> has upgraded Bharti Airtel<\/a>’s rating from “neutral to buy” amid Vodafone Idea<\/a>’s continuing fundraising challenges and the limited market impact of JioPhone Next – Reliance Jio’s budget 4G smartphone developed with Google launched last Diwali.
The global brokerage has also set “a new price target of Rs 855 (vs Rs 760 before)” for the Sunil Mittal led telco.
“Vi’s inability to raise funds so far, and (the) limited impact of JioPhone Next, coupled with Airtel<\/a>’s premium brand and high-end \/ less price sensitive customer base, should enable the company to continue to gain revenue market share (RMS) in the next 12-24 months,” UBS said in a note. It, though, expects Airtel’s average revenue per user (ARPU) rise after the latest tariff hike (in November 2021) to be more gradual.
Bharti Airtel shares closed 0.6% lower at Rs 717.15 on BSE Thursday.
UBS said that Airtel, besides reporting lower churn also “managed premiumisation better, adding 3 million postpaid subscribers in the last 8 quarters, with a further over 0.5 million on Airtel Black, with ARPUs of Rs 1,000”.
According to the global brokerage, the Airtel management’s recent indication that the telco won’t acquire 5G spectrum at current reserve price, “reduces the risk of an overly expensive 5G auction”.
Airtel’s managing director Gopal Vittal<\/a> recently said Bharti Airtel was at a new lifetime high in terms of RMS at nearly 36.9% in the fiscal third quarter, validating its strategy of winning with quality customers.
In this context, UBS said that based on Trai data, \"Airtel had gained 450-500 bps (basis points) in RMS in the past four quarters, and its 4G user net adds of 30 million in the past 12 months had exceeded both Jio and Vi\".
“Our case studies from other EMs (emerging markets) such as Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines also point out that premium operators tend to gain RMS during periods of industry<\/a> repair as high-end customers are less vulnerable to downgrades \/ churn,” UBS said.
The global brokerage added that the increase in its estimates for Airtel is more pronounced for FY23-24e, which means it now assumes that “Airtel will gain c250bps RMS through FY24e vs flat RMS earlier”.
UBS also expects Jio to continue gaining RMS, but such gains will be slower at c100bps annually in FY23-25e. It added that with Vi’s funding taking longer, it expects the loss-making telco will continue to cede revenue share till FY25e.
“Even assuming funding is raised before March, Vi will take another 12-18 months before the capex is spent,” UBS added.
Brokerage ICICI Securities too recently said that Airtel is set to outperform Jio and Vi on RMS gains in coming quarters, helped by a combination of successive tariff hikes and SIM consolidation.
SIM consolidation results in a sharp drop in the number of mobile SIM cards in the market. This normally happens when consumers make fresh choices about their preferred telco brands – based on quality of services – after a round of steep price hikes. After the steep tariff hikes by three private operators last November, Airtel lost only 0.6 million users in the December quarter compared to Jio and Vi who lost 8.5 million and 5.8 million customers respectively.
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瑞银(UBS)升级Airtel购买,提高目标价
“Vi无法筹集资金迄今为止,JioPhone Next()有限公司的影响,再加上Airtel的优质品牌和高端/价格敏感的客户基础,更应该使公司继续获得收入市场份额(RMS)在未来12 - 24个月,”瑞银(UBS)在一份报告中称。不过,它预计Airtel的每用户平均收入(ARPU)上升后最新的关税上调(2021年11月)更加渐进的。
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加尔各答:瑞士的瑞银经纪升级了Bharti Airtel买的评级从“中性”之际沃达丰的想法的继续筹款JioPhone未来的挑战和市场影响有限,依赖Jio预算4 g智能手机开发与谷歌推出最后一排灯节。
全球经纪公司也已经建立“一个新的目标价的Rs 855 (vs Rs 760前)”的苏尼尔•米塔尔电信领导。
“Vi无法筹集资金迄今为止,JioPhone Next()有限公司的影响,再加上附近的旅馆的优质品牌和高端/价格敏感的客户基础,更应该使公司继续获得收入市场份额(RMS)在未来12 - 24个月,”瑞银(UBS)在一份报告中说。不过,它预计Airtel的每用户平均收入(ARPU)上升后最新的关税上调(2021年11月)更加渐进的。
Bharti Airtel股价收低0.6%,报717.15 Rs在周四疯牛病。
Airtel瑞银表示,除了报告较低的生产也“premiumisation更好管理,添加300万邮资已付的用户在过去的8个季度,在050万年进一步Airtel黑色,arpu Rs 1000”。
根据全球经纪,Airtel管理最近的迹象表明,电信不会获得5 g频谱在当前底价,“减少过于昂贵的5 g拍卖的风险”。
旅馆的总经理塔·Vittal最近说Bharti Airtel在有生之年新高的RMS近36.9%在第三财季,验证的策略以质量赢得客户。
在这种背景下,瑞银表示,基于火车数据,“Airtel获得450 - 500个基点(基点)RMS过去四个季度,和其4 g用户净增加3000万在过去的12个月中超过Jio和Vi”。
“我们的案例研究从其他EMs(新兴市场),如印度尼西亚、泰国和菲律宾还指出,高端运营商倾向于获得RMS时期行业修复高端客户更容易受到降级/搅动,”瑞银表示。
全球经纪补充道,增加其估计Airtel FY23-24e更加明显,这意味着它现在假定“Airtel将获得c250bps RMS FY24e vs平RMS早”。
瑞银还预计Jio继续获得RMS,但这种收益每年在FY23-25e c100bps速度就会减慢。它补充说,用Vi的资金长时间,预计亏损电信将继续直到FY25e放弃收入份额。
“即便资金在3月之前,Vi将资本支出前的12 - 18个月,”瑞银(UBS)补充道。
经纪ICICI证券也最近表示,Airtel将超越Jio和Vi RMS收益在未来几个季度,由于连续的税率和SIM整合。
SIM整合导致急剧下降的数量在市场上手机SIM卡。这通常发生在消费者作出新的选择他们喜欢的电信品牌——基于质量服务后一轮大幅涨价。关税大幅上涨后三家私人运营商去年11月,Airtel失去了只有060万用户相比,12月当季Jio和Vi分别损失了850万和580万个客户。
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