Emerging economies struggled to grow through the 2010s, and pessimism shrouds them now. People wonder how they will pay debts rung up during the pandemic, and how they can grow rapidly as they did in the past – by exporting their way to prosperity – in an era of deglobalisation.
The freshest of many answers to this riddle is the fast spreading digital revolution<\/a>. Emerging nations<\/a> are adopting cutting edge technology at a lower and a lower cost, which is allowing them to fuel domestic demand and overcome traditional obstacles to growth. Over the last decade the number of smartphone owners has skyrocketed from 150 million to 4 billion worldwide. More than half the world’s population now carries the power of a supercomputer in their pockets, allowing more and more residents of the emerging world to access vital consumer and professional services for the first time.
The world’s largest emerging market has already demonstrated the transformative effects of digital technology. As China’s old rust belt industries slowed sharply over the last decade, and ran up debts that threatened to explode in crisis only a few years ago, the booming tech sector saved the economy.
Now, often by adopting rather than innovating, China’s emerging market peers are getting a push from the same digital engines. A recent report from the Boston Consulting Group<\/a> shows that since 2014 more than 10,000 tech firms have been launched in emerging markets – nearly half of them outside China.
India is home to as many new technology players today as France and Germany, and its companies are growing much faster. From Bangladesh to Egypt, it is easy to find entrepreneurs who worked for Google<\/a>, Facebook or other US giants before coming home to start their own companies.
There is a so-called Amazon of China, but there are now Amazons of Russia, Poland, Latin America and Southeast Asia<\/a>. Local firms also dominate the market for search in Russia, ride hailing in Indonesia and digital payments in Kenya.
By one key metric, the digital revolution is already as advanced in emerging economies than developed ones and growing faster. Among the top 30 nations by revenue<\/a> from digital services<\/a> as a share of GDP, more than half are in the emerging world. Indonesia for example is further advanced by this measure than countries such as Sweden and Finland – Europe’s most tech savvy nations. India ranks 12th in the world with digital revenues as a share of the economy, approaching 3%.
In fact, since 2017 digital revenue has been growing in emerging countries at an annual pace of 26%, compared to 11% in the developed ones. Led by e-commerce, the pace of growth in India has been even faster with revenues growing by nearly 33% a year over the same period. The European Center for Digital Competitiveness scores G20 nations by pace of progress in digital ecosystems and “mindset”, and puts four emerging nations in the top 5: Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, China and Argentina.
How can it be that developing nations are adopting common digital technologies more quickly than the rich? One simple explanation is habit and its absence. In societies saturated with bricks and mortar stores and services, customers are often comfortable with and slow to abandon the providers they have. In countries where people have difficulty even finding a bank or a doctor, they will jump at the first digital option that comes along.
Outsiders have a hard time grasping the impact digital services can have on underserved populations. Nations lacking in schools, hospitals and banks can quickly if not completely redress these gaps by establishing online services. Though only 5% of Kenyans carry credit cards, more than 70% have access to digital banking.
The “digital divide” is narrowing, in many places. Most of the big countries where internet bandwidth and mobile broadband subscriptions are growing fastest are in the emerging world. Last decade, the number of internet users doubled in the G20 nations, but the biggest gains came in emerging nations such as Brazil and India, “narrowing the gap” in access to digital services.
The digital impact on productivity, the key to sustained economic growth, is visible on the ground. Many governments are moving services online to make them more transparent and less vulnerable to corruption, perhaps the most feared obstacle to doing business in the emerging world. This helps create a greater sense of trust and cooperation, which in turn facilitates higher economic growth.
Since 2010, the cost of starting a business has held steady in developed countries while falling sharply in emerging countries, from 66% to just 27% of the average annual income. Entrepreneurs can now launch businesses affordably, organising everything they need on a smartphone. Lagos and Nairobi are rising as local fintech hubs, where leading executives vow to raise Africa’s “digital GDP” by widening access to internet financing.
It’s early days, too. As scholar Carlota Perez has shown, tech revolutions last a long time. New innovations like the car and the steam engine were still transforming economies for the better half a century later. Now, the fading era of globalisation will limit the number of emerging economies that can prosper on exports alone, but the era of rapid digitisation has only just begun. This offers many developing economies a revolutionary new path to catching up with the living standards of the developed world.Fast-spreading digital revolution offers a new growth path for India and other emerging nations.
Ruchir Sharma is the author of the upcoming ‘10 Rules of Successful Nations’<\/em>
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观点:数字革命升级为印度提供了一个新的增长路径和其他人
在过去的十年里,智能手机用户数量迅猛增长从1.5亿年到40亿年。超过一半的世界人口现在有一台超级计算机的力量在他们的口袋,让越来越多的新兴世界的居民首次访问重要的消费者和专业服务。
通过卢舍夏尔马
通过2010年代新兴经济体努力成长,带给他们和悲观。人想知道他们将如何偿还债务响在大流行期间,以及他们如何能像他们那样快速增长在过去——通过出口繁荣——去全球化的时代。
最新鲜的这个谜题的答案快速蔓延数字革命。新兴国家采用尖端技术较低和更低的成本,这是允许他们燃料增长的国内需求,克服传统的障碍。在过去的十年里,智能手机用户数量迅猛增长从1.5亿年到40亿年。超过一半的世界人口现在有一台超级计算机的力量在他们的口袋,让越来越多的新兴世界的居民首次访问重要的消费者和专业服务。
世界上最大的新兴市场已经证明了数字技术的变革作用。随着中国古老的铁锈地带行业大幅放缓在过去的十年里,,跑了债务威胁将在危机爆发仅仅几年前,蓬勃发展的科技行业拯救经济。
现在,经常采用而不是创新,中国的新兴市场国家正在推动从相同的数字引擎。最近的报告波士顿咨询集团显示,自2014年以来,10000多名科技公司已经推出了在新兴市场,其中近一半中国以外的地区。
印度拥有尽可能多的新技术的球员今天法国和德国,及其公司成长太快。从孟加拉国到埃及,很容易找到工作的企业家谷歌Facebook或其他美国巨头之前回家开始自己的公司。
有一个所谓的亚马逊中国,但现在亚马逊女战士的俄罗斯,波兰,拉丁美洲和东南亚。当地企业也为搜索主导市场在俄罗斯,称赞在印度尼西亚和肯尼亚的数字支付。
一个关键指标,数字革命已经比发达国家先进的新兴经济体的增长速度。在前30个国家收入从数字服务作为GDP的一部分,一半以上在新兴世界。印度尼西亚为例进一步先进的测量比瑞典和芬兰等国,欧洲最科技精明的国家。印度世界排名第12位数字收入作为经济的一部分,接近3%。
事实上,自2017年以来数字收入新兴国家的增长年率为26%,比发达国家的11%。由电子商务、印度的增长速度甚至更快的与收入以每年近33%的速度增长。欧洲数字中心竞争力得分20国集团由数字生态系统的进展速度和“心态”,并将四个新兴国家在前5:沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚、中国和阿根廷。
怎么可以让发展中国家正在采用常见的数字技术更快比富人吗?一个简单的解释是习惯及其缺乏。社会中饱和的砖和迫击炮商店和服务,客户通常是适应和减缓放弃提供者。国家的人甚至有困难找到一个银行或医生,他们会欣然接受第一个数字选项出现。
外人很难把握数字服务对缺医少药人群的影响。国家缺乏学校、医院和银行可以迅速如果不是完全纠正这些差距通过建立在线服务。尽管只有5%的肯尼亚人携带信用卡,获得数字银行70%以上。
缩小“数字鸿沟”,在许多地方。多数大型国家互联网带宽和移动宽带用户增长最快的新兴市场。过去十年中,互联网用户的数量翻了一番,G20国家,但涨幅最大的是巴西和印度等新兴国家,“缩小差距”对数字服务的访问。
数字对生产率的影响,经济持续增长的关键,是可见的在地上。许多国家的政府正在服务网络使他们更加透明,而且不那么容易腐败,最害怕在新兴市场开展业务的障碍。这可以帮助创建一个更强烈的信任与合作,进而促进经济增长。
自2010年以来,创业的成本一直稳定在发达国家虽然在新兴国家急剧下降,从66%到27%的年均收入。企业家现在可以启动企业经济化,组织一切他们需要在智能手机上。拉各斯和内罗毕上升为当地fintech中心,那里主要高管承诺提高非洲的“数字GDP”通过互联网扩大获得融资。
这是早期。正如学者Carlota佩雷斯所展示的,科技革命持续很长时间。创新就像汽车和蒸汽机仍将经济好转半个世纪后。现在,衰落的时代,全球化将会限制数量的新兴经济体对出口的繁荣,但快速数字化的时代才刚刚开始。这提供了许多发展中经济体的一个革命性的新路径赶上发达国家的生活水平。数字革命提供了一个新的升级为印度和其他新兴国家增长道路。
卢舍夏尔马的作者是即将到来的“10成功国家的规则
通过2010年代新兴经济体努力成长,带给他们和悲观。人想知道他们将如何偿还债务响在大流行期间,以及他们如何能像他们那样快速增长在过去——通过出口繁荣——去全球化的时代。
最新鲜的这个谜题的答案快速蔓延数字革命。新兴国家采用尖端技术较低和更低的成本,这是允许他们燃料增长的国内需求,克服传统的障碍。在过去的十年里,智能手机用户数量迅猛增长从1.5亿年到40亿年。超过一半的世界人口现在有一台超级计算机的力量在他们的口袋,让越来越多的新兴世界的居民首次访问重要的消费者和专业服务。
世界上最大的新兴市场已经证明了数字技术的变革作用。随着中国古老的铁锈地带行业大幅放缓在过去的十年里,,跑了债务威胁将在危机爆发仅仅几年前,蓬勃发展的科技行业拯救经济。
现在,经常采用而不是创新,中国的新兴市场国家正在推动从相同的数字引擎。最近的报告波士顿咨询集团显示,自2014年以来,10000多名科技公司已经推出了在新兴市场,其中近一半中国以外的地区。
印度拥有尽可能多的新技术的球员今天法国和德国,及其公司成长太快。从孟加拉国到埃及,很容易找到工作的企业家谷歌Facebook或其他美国巨头之前回家开始自己的公司。
有一个所谓的亚马逊中国,但现在亚马逊女战士的俄罗斯,波兰,拉丁美洲和东南亚。当地企业也为搜索主导市场在俄罗斯,称赞在印度尼西亚和肯尼亚的数字支付。
一个关键指标,数字革命已经比发达国家先进的新兴经济体的增长速度。在前30个国家收入从数字服务作为GDP的一部分,一半以上在新兴世界。印度尼西亚为例进一步先进的测量比瑞典和芬兰等国,欧洲最科技精明的国家。印度世界排名第12位数字收入作为经济的一部分,接近3%。
事实上,自2017年以来数字收入新兴国家的增长年率为26%,比发达国家的11%。由电子商务、印度的增长速度甚至更快的与收入以每年近33%的速度增长。欧洲数字中心竞争力得分20国集团由数字生态系统的进展速度和“心态”,并将四个新兴国家在前5:沙特阿拉伯、印度尼西亚、中国和阿根廷。
怎么可以让发展中国家正在采用常见的数字技术更快比富人吗?一个简单的解释是习惯及其缺乏。社会中饱和的砖和迫击炮商店和服务,客户通常是适应和减缓放弃提供者。国家的人甚至有困难找到一个银行或医生,他们会欣然接受第一个数字选项出现。
外人很难把握数字服务对缺医少药人群的影响。国家缺乏学校、医院和银行可以迅速如果不是完全纠正这些差距通过建立在线服务。尽管只有5%的肯尼亚人携带信用卡,获得数字银行70%以上。
缩小“数字鸿沟”,在许多地方。多数大型国家互联网带宽和移动宽带用户增长最快的新兴市场。过去十年中,互联网用户的数量翻了一番,G20国家,但涨幅最大的是巴西和印度等新兴国家,“缩小差距”对数字服务的访问。
数字对生产率的影响,经济持续增长的关键,是可见的在地上。许多国家的政府正在服务网络使他们更加透明,而且不那么容易腐败,最害怕在新兴市场开展业务的障碍。这可以帮助创建一个更强烈的信任与合作,进而促进经济增长。
自2010年以来,创业的成本一直稳定在发达国家虽然在新兴国家急剧下降,从66%到27%的年均收入。企业家现在可以启动企业经济化,组织一切他们需要在智能手机上。拉各斯和内罗毕上升为当地fintech中心,那里主要高管承诺提高非洲的“数字GDP”通过互联网扩大获得融资。
这是早期。正如学者Carlota佩雷斯所展示的,科技革命持续很长时间。创新就像汽车和蒸汽机仍将经济好转半个世纪后。现在,衰落的时代,全球化将会限制数量的新兴经济体对出口的繁荣,但快速数字化的时代才刚刚开始。这提供了许多发展中经济体的一个革命性的新路径赶上发达国家的生活水平。数字革命提供了一个新的升级为印度和其他新兴国家增长道路。
卢舍夏尔马的作者是即将到来的“10成功国家的规则
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