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“We are certain that the lower addition has been hit by restrictions from mid-March and the nationwide lockdown during the latter half of the months,” Aliasgar Shakir of Motilal Oswal said in a July 14 report. The rise in tariffs also could be a factor, he said.
The drop in subscriber base could be a worry, especially for Vodafone Idea, which has seen a continuous drop in its base. The Adittya Birla-Vodafone Plc joint venture is left with active market shares of 29.7 per cent, against 36 per cent for the year-ago period.
“Vodafone Idea’s continuous loss of subscribers is majorly due to its sub-par network qualities along with its survival uncertainty, which is hinging on the Supreme Court’s decision to grant an extended moratorium period on the AGR liability,” Shakir said.
Airtel and Vodafone Idea recently faced the wrath of the telecom regulator, which blocked their premium plans that were part of telcos’ plans to expand top lines. An excess of regulatory intervention, net neutrality rules and the extra burden of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) have made life difficult for the telcos, experts said.
“In telecommunication, the value actually has been taken away by people who build something on top of the telecom pipeline rather than those who lay the pipeline and that is unfortunate because all over the world you have net neutrality laws which make sure nobody can charge extra for say streaming a movie or voice call or Zoom chat or whatever,” said Raunak Onkar, Research Head at PPFAS MF.
And at the same time, if you look at their capex requirements and return ratios of these companies, it is actually not a very great industry<\/a> to look at, he added.
However, not everyone has a bearish view on telecom companies. Emkay has included Airtel in its high conviction list thanks to a sustained rise in 4G subscribers and another round of tariff rise, which is expected. It has a target of Rs 684 on the scrip, an upside of 21 per cent from last close, Emkay said in a July 1 note.
Sunil Subramaniam, MD of Sundaram Mutual, said even though Jio has roped in some of the biggest names as investors, it is not that others are devoid of any support.
“I think India is a two or three player market and given the size there is adequate space for all the three to benefit. Yes there will be readjustments of market share but Airtel and Vodafone Idea also have international backing. Singtel backs Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea is UK backed. India is a big enough market that is why Google has made such a bet (on Jio). So I think the market is large enough for all the three players to benefit,” he said.
One good thing that works for Vodafone Idea is that it still has the biggest subscriber base of postpaid users at 23 million. \"In our view, the subscriber base of both Bharti and VIL are relatively less price sensitive, making them more amenable to tariff hikes,\" IIFL Securities said a note released earlier this month.
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“我们确信下已经从3月中旬受到限制和全国锁定在后者的一半个月,“Aliasgar Shakir Motilal Oswal在7月14日的一份报告中说。关税的增加也可能是一个因素,他说。
用户数量的下降可能是担心,尤其是对沃达丰的想法,一个连续下降。合资的Adittya Birla-Vodafone Plc是剩下活跃的市场份额为29.7%,较去年同期增长36%。
“沃达丰的想法是连续失去用户多半是由于其低网络特质与其生存的不确定性,这是根据最高法院的决定给予延长暂停期AGR责任,“Shakir说。
Airtel和沃达丰的想法最近面临着电信监管机构的愤怒,阻止他们的保费计划,是电信公司的一部分计划扩大顶线。过度的监管干预,网络中立规则和调整后的总收益(AGR)的额外负担使生活困难的电信公司,专家说。
“在电信,价值实际上已经被人带走的构建电信管线管道,而不是那些躺这是不幸的,因为世界各地有网络中立的法律确保没有人可以额外收费说流媒体电影或语音电话或变焦聊天什么的,“说Raunak这项,研究负责人PPFAS MF。
同时,如果你看看这些企业的资本支出需求和回报比率,它不是很大行业看,他补充说。
然而,并不是每个人都有悲观的看法在电信公司。假如其高信念列表中包括Airtel由于持续上升4 g用户和新一轮的关税上涨,预计。它有一个目标的Rs 684代币,较去年上升21%接近,假如在7月1日报告中说。
Sundaram相互的苏尼尔苏博士说,尽管Jio已经说服了一些大名鼎鼎的投资者来说,这并不是说别人没有任何支持。
“我认为印度是一个两个或三个球员市场,考虑到规模有足够的空间为所有三个受益。是的会有变动的市场份额但Airtel和沃达丰的想法也有国际支持。新加坡电信支持Bharti Airtel和沃达丰英国支持的想法是。印度是一个足够大的市场,谷歌做出了这样的选择(Jio)。所以我认为市场是足够大的三名球员受益,”他说。
一个好事是沃达丰的想法是,它仍有邮资已付的用户的最大用户数为2300万。“在我们看来,Bharti的用户数和维尔相对价格不那么敏感,使其更适合关税上涨,“IIFL证券表示,本月早些时候发布的一份报告。
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