Meanwhile, EBITDA<\/a> margin is expected to improve for the reporting third quarter, led by Spectrum Usage Charges savings.
Brokerage ICICI Direct is estimating a net loss of Rs 7,557 crore, with revenue growth flat quarter-on-quarter at Rs 10,620 crore. The company had posted a net loss of Rs 7,230 crore in the last year quarter and Rs 7,595 crore in the preceding September quarter.
\"We see monthly ARPU<\/a> growth of 2% quarter-on-quarter at Rs 134 and churn for Vodafone Idea<\/a> to continue with 6 million customer exits likely in the third quarter. We expect EBITDA<\/a> at Rs 4,299 crore, and is expected to be up 5% quarter-on-quarter, aided by SUC benefits,\" ICICI Direct said in a report.
Motilal Oswal<\/a>, too, estimates a flattish revenue growth with sequential growth in ARPU<\/a>. \"We expect a 2.5% sequential increase in blended ARPU, offset by subscriber decline by 2.5%, leading to flat revenue growth. ARPU is expected to grow to Rs 134.3, led by an increase in 4G subs mix,\" it said.
Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities expects revenue to decline 1% quarter-on-quarter as continued subscriber loss would offset modest uptick in ARPU.
\"We expect EBITDA to increase 1.5% quarter-on-quarter driven mainly by savings on SUC. We model subscriber base to decline by further 6 million quarter-on-quarter to 228 million and ARPU to increase by Rs 2 quarter-on-quarter to Rs 133 per month driven by subscriber mix improvements,\" Kotak Institutional Equities said.
Some of the key monitorables in the third quarter report card include fund raise and 5G launch plans, capex commentary and ARPU trajectory.
Recently, the government has approved conversion of Rs 16,133 crore interest dues of Vodafone Idea<\/a> into equity after receiving a firm commitment from Aditya Birla Group to run the company and bring necessary investment.
Post the allotment of equity, the government's stake stands at 33.44% and it is the largest shareholder in the company.
According to analysts, the government clearing conversion of Vodafone Idea's interest dues into equity is a near-term positive for the telecom company, as it would help free up some cash flows with the possibility of tariff hikes up ahead.
Market watchers, however, felt that the fundamental issues remain for Vodafone Idea, which is significantly under-invested in fiber, 5G and core telecom infra and where investments to the tune of $6-8 billion will be needed to narrow the gap.
Vodafone Idea is the only telecom operator which is yet to place purchase orders for 5G services equipment and has been struggling to pay dues of its vendors.
Economic Times earlier reported that the telco has started fresh talks with key lenders, including State Bank of India<\/a>, Punjab National Bank<\/a> and HDFC Bank<\/a>, to refinance Rs 3,000-4,000 crore of loans.
Refinancing of some debt will help free up cash for Vi, which urgently needs to pay substantial vendor dues - to tower companies like Indus Towers<\/a> and network equipment makers such as Ericsson and Nokia.
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