Plans to survey chipmakers and keep tabs on the supply chain to head off further disruption highlight just how disconnected the U.S. government is from the realities of a $500 billion industry that spans the globe. Instead, American diplomats would do well to work with allies to build an integrated real-time database that will last well beyond the Covid-19 pandemic. 芯片制造商计划调查和监视供应链进一步阻止破坏突出多么现实的断开连接的美国政府5000亿美元的行业,遍及全球。相反,美国外交官应该好好与盟友合作,建立一个集成的实时数据库,远远超出了Covid-19大流行。
A request last month by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo<\/a> for semiconductor companies to detail their sales, products, technology and inventory was coupled with a threat that the White House might invoke a Cold War-era law to force them into submission. Such intimidation is counter-productive, and ruffled feathers in Taipei, Seoul and Beijing at a time when Washington<\/a> needs to open lines of communication with other nations.
The survey, which the U.S. wants completed by Nov. 8, includes 26 questions that range from the mundane — “What are the (general) applications for the semiconductor products and integrated circuits that you purchase?” — to the downright intrusive — “List each product's top three current customers and the estimated percentage of that product's sales accounted for by each customer.”
A bitter response from China was to be expected, with critics there pointing to the move as evidence that the U.S. wants the data merely to suppress the country’s rising power. Officials in allies Taiwan<\/a> and South Korea were more circumspect, yet quick to defend their champions — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co<\/a>. and Samsung Electronics Co<\/a>. — from having to leak confidential information.
In truth, the reaction from some quarters, including politicians and media, was overblown. Lost in the rancor was the fact that this survey is a standard tool deployed by the Commerce Department to get a handle on an issue, and responses are entirely voluntary. Applying the Defense Production Act<\/a> to force compliance is an unnecessary stick that likely won’t apply to foreign companies, anyway.
That said, the survey is likely to be redundant by the time replies are compiled and analyzed. Semiconductors are one of the fastest-moving sectors of the global economy. At TSMC, for example, inventory levels regularly rise or fall by 20% or more within just a few months. And new products that are built with the latest technologies get rolled out every quarter or two.
When a report is finally prepared — likely at the end of the year — almost 12 months will have passed since TSMC’s announcement that relieving the auto-chip shortage was its “top priority” and that it was shifting capacity to handle it. Whatever information the U.S. government can glean from these surveys — which will be absent the truly sensitive client information that companies shall refuse to provide — could have already been ascertained from industry groups or a handful of sell-side research reports. For example, that automotive accounts for just 4% of TSMC’s sales, and has barely changed in three years, is public information released with each earnings report.
It’s possible that the data Commerce collates will show some buyers have been stockpiling chips, a fact already widely reported, or that there’s a need for capacity in some technology nodes — also well known. But in the fast-changing world of semiconductor supply and demand, all this will be backward-looking information.
To try to grapple with the situation in real time, the Commerce Department last week announced the establishment of an early alert system that will “help the interagency Supply Chain Disruption Task Force to coordinate U.S. government resources to help resolve supply chain bottlenecks occurring due to the global chip shortage.” Its method of reporting: send us an email.
Raimondo’s explanation for the system is revealing. “We need to hear directly from impacted businesses when they are experiencing a Covid-related semiconductor supply chain disruption,” she said (emphasis added).
Deploying a manual process built for a short-term event is the kind of approach industry is unlikely to take seriously. The chip sector collates and processes reams of supply chain data, using it to tweak every aspect of operations. Most is automated through global systems supplied by the likes of SAP SE and Oracle Corp.
This is what the U.S. should be tapping into. It’s highly unlikely that China will want to partake, but there’s a good chance that like-minded partners in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Europe would be willing to work with companies in their own geographies to feed data into a central system — on the provision that each of them get equal access to it.
One of the big mistakes Washington has made during this chip shortage is to act like the U.S is the only victim and its needs usurp anyone else’s. If it truly wants to fix this problem, and prevent future occurrences, the government ought to get back into alliance building and show the world that it’s ready to create a global solution.
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上个月由商务部长请求吉娜Raimondo半导体公司详细销售、产品、技术和库存加上一个威胁,白宫可能会调用一个冷战时期的法律,迫使他们屈服。这样的恐吓是适得其反,羽毛在台北,首尔和北京的时候华盛顿需要打开与其他国家的交流。
激烈回应中国是可以预料到的,批评人士指出,有证据表明,美国希望的数据仅仅是压制中国崛起。官员的盟友台湾和韩国人更谨慎,但很快捍卫自己的冠军台湾半导体制造公司。和三星电子有限公司。——从泄漏机密信息。
事实上,一些人的反应,包括政客和媒体,是夸大了。迷失在怨恨的是这个调查是由美国商务部标准工具部署试图解决一个问题,和响应是完全自愿的。应用国防生产行为强迫服从是一种不必要的坚持,可能不会适用于外国公司,。
说,调查可能是冗余的时候回复编译和分析。半导体是全球经济的当地部门之一。在台积电,例如,定期库存水平上升或下降20%或更多在几个月之内。和新产品推出了最新技术得到每一到两个季度。
当终于准备的一份报告——可能在今年年底,几乎已经过去12个月将台积电宣布解除auto-chip短缺是其“首要任务”,这是转移能力来处理它。无论美国政府可以从这些调查收集信息——这将会缺席真正敏感客户信息,企业应当拒绝提供,可以从行业组织已经确定或少数卖方研究报告。例如,台积电的销售汽车仅占4%,在三年内几乎没有改变,与每个收益报告发布的公共信息。
可能商务部整理的数据将显示一些买家已经储存芯片,事实已经广泛报道,或者有需要一些技术节点的能力——也广为人知。但在半导体供给和需求的日新月异的世界,这将是保守的所有信息。
试图解决实时的情况,美国商务部上周宣布建立一个早期预警系统,将“帮助颠覆供应链跨部门专责小组协调美国政府资源来帮助解决供应链瓶颈发生由于全球芯片短缺。”报道的方法:给我们一个电子邮件。
系统揭示Raimondo的解释。“我们需要听到直接从影响企业当他们正在经历一个Covid-related半导体供应链中断,“她说(重点)。
部署一个手动过程建立短期事件的方法行业不太可能认真对待。芯片部门整理供应链和处理大量的数据,用它来调整业务的方方面面。大多数是通过全球自动化系统提供的SAP SE和甲骨文(orcl . o:行情)。
这就是美国应该利用。这是极不可能的,中国想要分享,但是有一个很好的机会,志同道合的合作伙伴在台湾,日本、韩国和欧洲愿意与公司在自己的地域饲料数据到一个中央系统——他们每个人都得到平等的条款。
华盛顿的一大错误使得在此芯片短缺是像U。年代是唯一的受害者及其侵占别人的需求。如果真的想要解决这个问题,和防止未来发生,政府应该回到联盟建设和向世界展示的准备创建一个全球性的解决方案。
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Plans to survey chipmakers and keep tabs on the supply chain to head off further disruption highlight just how disconnected the U.S. government is from the realities of a $500 billion industry that spans the globe. Instead, American diplomats would do well to work with allies to build an integrated real-time database that will last well beyond the Covid-19 pandemic.
A request last month by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo<\/a> for semiconductor companies to detail their sales, products, technology and inventory was coupled with a threat that the White House might invoke a Cold War-era law to force them into submission. Such intimidation is counter-productive, and ruffled feathers in Taipei, Seoul and Beijing at a time when Washington<\/a> needs to open lines of communication with other nations.
The survey, which the U.S. wants completed by Nov. 8, includes 26 questions that range from the mundane — “What are the (general) applications for the semiconductor products and integrated circuits that you purchase?” — to the downright intrusive — “List each product's top three current customers and the estimated percentage of that product's sales accounted for by each customer.”
A bitter response from China was to be expected, with critics there pointing to the move as evidence that the U.S. wants the data merely to suppress the country’s rising power. Officials in allies Taiwan<\/a> and South Korea were more circumspect, yet quick to defend their champions — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co<\/a>. and Samsung Electronics Co<\/a>. — from having to leak confidential information.
In truth, the reaction from some quarters, including politicians and media, was overblown. Lost in the rancor was the fact that this survey is a standard tool deployed by the Commerce Department to get a handle on an issue, and responses are entirely voluntary. Applying the Defense Production Act<\/a> to force compliance is an unnecessary stick that likely won’t apply to foreign companies, anyway.
That said, the survey is likely to be redundant by the time replies are compiled and analyzed. Semiconductors are one of the fastest-moving sectors of the global economy. At TSMC, for example, inventory levels regularly rise or fall by 20% or more within just a few months. And new products that are built with the latest technologies get rolled out every quarter or two.
When a report is finally prepared — likely at the end of the year — almost 12 months will have passed since TSMC’s announcement that relieving the auto-chip shortage was its “top priority” and that it was shifting capacity to handle it. Whatever information the U.S. government can glean from these surveys — which will be absent the truly sensitive client information that companies shall refuse to provide — could have already been ascertained from industry groups or a handful of sell-side research reports. For example, that automotive accounts for just 4% of TSMC’s sales, and has barely changed in three years, is public information released with each earnings report.
It’s possible that the data Commerce collates will show some buyers have been stockpiling chips, a fact already widely reported, or that there’s a need for capacity in some technology nodes — also well known. But in the fast-changing world of semiconductor supply and demand, all this will be backward-looking information.
To try to grapple with the situation in real time, the Commerce Department last week announced the establishment of an early alert system that will “help the interagency Supply Chain Disruption Task Force to coordinate U.S. government resources to help resolve supply chain bottlenecks occurring due to the global chip shortage.” Its method of reporting: send us an email.
Raimondo’s explanation for the system is revealing. “We need to hear directly from impacted businesses when they are experiencing a Covid-related semiconductor supply chain disruption,” she said (emphasis added).
Deploying a manual process built for a short-term event is the kind of approach industry is unlikely to take seriously. The chip sector collates and processes reams of supply chain data, using it to tweak every aspect of operations. Most is automated through global systems supplied by the likes of SAP SE and Oracle Corp.
This is what the U.S. should be tapping into. It’s highly unlikely that China will want to partake, but there’s a good chance that like-minded partners in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Europe would be willing to work with companies in their own geographies to feed data into a central system — on the provision that each of them get equal access to it.
One of the big mistakes Washington has made during this chip shortage is to act like the U.S is the only victim and its needs usurp anyone else’s. If it truly wants to fix this problem, and prevent future occurrences, the government ought to get back into alliance building and show the world that it’s ready to create a global solution.
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