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WASHINGTON: When the Biden administration unveiled aggressive export controls in October aimed at blocking China from becoming a global leader in advanced semiconductors it was missing a key ingredient: agreement from U.S. allies to impose their own matching restrictions.
Persuading Japan to join the U.S. effort, which limits Chinese access to U.S. chipmaking<\/a> technology and cuts China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world, will be high on U.S. President Joe Biden<\/a>'s to-do list when he meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida<\/a> in Washington on Friday.
American officials, touting an ever-closer strategic alignment with Japan, are praising Tokyo's plan for the biggest Japanese military buildup since World War Two as rivalry with China in the region grows.
But while Japan is broadly in-line with the goals of the Biden administration's expanded U.S. export controls, Kishida's government has been vague about the extent to which it will join in.
Speaking in Washington last week, Japan's minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Yasutoshi Nishimura, promised to work more closely with Washington on export controls, although he did not say whether Tokyo would match sweeping U.S. restrictions.
The hesitation is understandable - Japan is a top producer of the specialized tooling equipment needed to manufacture advanced chips and its companies hold 27% of global market share, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association<\/a>. Tokyo Electron<\/a>, Japan's leading chip manufacturing equipment maker, relies on China for about a quarter of its revenue.
The other top producers of chip-making gear are the United States and the Netherlands, home to ASML, another of the world's biggest makers of chip-making tools.
SEEKING A DEAL<\/strong>
U.S. officials are quick to play down the differences between the United States, Japan and other allies.
\"I think there's a very, very similar vision of the challenges,\" a senior U.S. administration official told Reuters on Wednesday, adding that Japanese export restrictions may not be exactly the same as the U.S. controls.
\"But I don't think the Japanese question the basic premise that we need to be working closely together on this.\"
A U.S. Commerce Department official said in October he expected a deal with allies in the near term.
Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte will travel to Washington to meet Biden on Tuesday and discuss \"cooperation on critical technologies and shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific,\" the White House said on Thursday.
Still, said Daniel Russel, a former top U.S. diplomat for Asia, a gap remains between the U.S. and Japanese positions.
\"Kishida wants the U.S. to take a Goldilocks approach that is tough enough to deter Chinese assertiveness, but cautious enough to allow Japan's business interests to thrive,\" he said.
Behind the U.S. drive for high-tech export controls is rising alarm about China's military buildup and its effort to outpace the United States in technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
Fearing that this will yield a military edge for an increasingly assertive China, U.S. officials hope that keeping the most sophisticated chips - and the tools needed to make them - out of China's hands will slow the country's progress on advanced technologies.
But unless Japan and the Netherlands impose their own export controls, China will soon perfect other ways of getting the equipment it needs, even as American companies stand to lose market share.
A U.S. deal with the Netherlands could also be within reach. One toolmaking industry executive familiar with that country's sector said that if the Dutch government imposed similar export controls on its industry, ASML would probably not suffer a severe impact due to its extensive network of customers beyond China.
If U.S. diplomacy succeeds, its policies could have the intended impact, argues Chris Miller, author of \"Chip War\" and an associate professor at Tufts University.
With Japan on board, particularly in terms of chip manufacturing tools, the United States could put up \"a really large number of road blocks to China's ability to advance its own domestic chipmaking,\" Miller said.
That would have knock-on effects for Beijing's other tech ambitions, including in artificial intelligence.
Japanese companies can make up for lost China business by expanding elsewhere, such as Southeast Asia, a chip industry source familiar with internal discussions about export restrictions said.
\"For better or worse, Japan's semiconductor strategy is moving in accordance with what the United States wants.\"
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为什么美国需要日本帮助中国芯片限制吗
说服日本加入美国的努力,这限制了中国访问和削减美国芯片制造技术从某些半导体芯片在世界任何地方,将是美国总统拜登的待办事项列表,当他会见日本首相Fumio Kishida周五在华盛顿。
读到
华盛顿:当10月拜登政府公布了激进的出口管制旨在阻止中国成为全球领先的先进半导体这是失踪的一个关键因素:从美国的盟友协议强加自己的匹配的限制。
说服日本加入美国的努力,限制中国对美国的访问芯片从某些半导体芯片技术和削减中国在世界任何地方,将是美国总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)的待办事项列表,当他会见日本首相负责人Kishida文雄周五在华盛顿。
美国官员,越来越紧密的战略联盟与日本兜售,赞扬日本计划第二次世界大战以来最大的日本军事建设随着该地区与中国的竞争。
但在日本广泛与拜登政府的目标扩大美国的出口管制,Kishida政府一直模糊的程度将加入。
上周在华盛顿,日本经济,贸易和工业,Yasutoshi Nishimura承诺工作更紧密地与美国出口管制,虽然他没有说东京是否匹配席卷美国的限制。
犹豫是可以理解的——日本是一个顶级生产商制造所需的专用工具设备先进的芯片及其公司持有27%的全球市场份额,根据半导体行业协会。东京电子日本领先的芯片制造设备制造商,依靠中国四分之一的收入。
芯片制造设备的其他顶级生产商美国和荷兰ASML,世界最大的芯片制造商的另一个工具。
寻求一项协议
美国官员迅速淡化美国之间的差异,日本和其他盟友。
“我认为有一个非常类似的挑战,”一位美国高级政府官员周三对路透表示,并称日本出口限制可能不完全一样,美国控制。
“但我不认为日本问题的基本前提我们需要一起密切合作。”
美国商务部的一位官员说他预计10月与盟友在短期内达成协议。
荷兰首相马克•吕特将前往华盛顿与拜登周二会面商谈”关键技术合作,共同展望一个自由和开放的特质,”白宫周四表示。
Daniel拉塞尔说,亚洲的前美国外交官,美国和日本之间的差距仍然立场。
“Kishida希望美国采取温和的方法,是够阻止中国的自信,但谨慎足以让日本商业利益的发展,”他说。
仅次于美国推动高科技出口管制上升对中国的军事建设及其报警努力超越美国在人工智能和量子计算等技术。
担心这将产量日益自信的中国的军事优势,美国官员希望保持最先进的芯片,让他们所需的工具,中国的手将减缓中国进步的先进技术。
但除非日本和荷兰强加自己的出口管制,中国很快就会完美的其他方式得到它所需要的设备,尽管美国公司会失去市场份额。
美国处理荷兰也可以触手可及。一个熟悉的部门工具制造行业高管表示,如果荷兰政府对其实施类似的出口管制行业,ASML可能不会遭受严重影响由于其广泛的客户网络。
如果美国外交成功,其政策可能产生的影响,认为克里斯•米勒的作者“芯片战争”和塔夫茨大学的副教授。
与日本,特别是在芯片制造工具方面,美国可以把“一个非常大量的路障对中国推进国内芯片的能力,”米勒说。
这将对北京的其他科技野心连锁效应,包括人工智能。
日本公司可以弥补失去的中国业务,扩大在其他地方,比如东南亚,芯片行业知情人士内部讨论出口限制。
“不管怎样,日本的半导体战略正在按照美国希望什么。”
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