AGR:政府和电信行业需要制定一个解决方案
从积极的一面来看,可以说,大部分对话在电信部门在2019年由5 g,另一面是巨大的争议与“调整后的总收益”(AGR)出现在今年下半年。
Tele-Talk新鲜的花,深入分析和观点从受人尊敬的行业领导者
Of the things that stood out in technology, was the mainstreaming of AI, automation and Big Data analytics.
Mainstream companies and the government began scoping out its possibilities and making initial investments into it and we also saw the terminologies became a staple of everyday lexicon.
On the positive side while it may be said that most conversations in the telecom sector in 2019 were dominated by 5G, the flip side was the huge controversy linked to \u2018Adjusted Gross Revenue\u2019 (AGR) that surfaced in the latter part of the year.
The Supreme Court\u2019s recent verdict on AGR has had unimagined mammoth consequences for not just the telecom sector, but also huge negative impacts for several non-telecom sectors.
For example, the entire industry is taken aback to see that PSUs like GAIL are hit with pay-outs to the tune of over a lakh crore rupees each.
Needless to say, major and minor vendors to telcos and PSUs would get impacted and, last but not least, the NPAs of many public sector banks could rise sharply.
The government\u2019s consideration of offering a 20-year payment term with the Net-Present-Value (NPV) protected is a welcome step and we do hope it gets finalised.
However, this would still be inadequate with regards to curing the sector\u2019s basic problems of continued high spectrum fees, other tariffs and taxes. What is required is major policy action with holistic multi-sided settlement, to be both profitable and viable.
Given the critical role that the telecom industry plays in the overall economy, we would recommend for the government and the industry to work out a settlement, wherein the industry would offer tangible benefits to both customers and the government through aspects of Quality of Service, extended coverage, new technologies like 5G, etc. and, the Government would provide a migration package that takes the operators away from the contentious issues of AGR, high spectrum prices, spectrum usage charge, etc.
Scrapping the current system of licence fee as a percentage of AGR since spectrum is no more bundled with licence, and levying an annual fixed fee to cover the administration and regulation costs (about 0.1% of the present AGR) would be an appropriate measure.
Further, the above fee would cover the cost to the wireless planning and coordination department and that of regulating spectrum, thereby invalidating the need for levy of Spectrum Usage Charge (SUC) as part of AGR, which should hence be discontinued.
Rationalisation of the reserve prices for Spectrum, the life-blood of telecommunications, is the most critical need for the sector and needs to be addressed on priority.
A robust and competitive telecom sector is essential for the national economy, and big players cannot be allowed to fail as such.
On the mobile internet front, the acceleration of 4G deployments in the past one year has brought about staggering growth in mobile data consumption.
While we were languishing at around the 100th position in mobile data consumption in 2016, we have achieved numero-uno position in data usage and consumption last year.
A highly competitive price war between the three main telcos over the past 3 years also brought in free voice-calls and ensured rock bottom data rates \u2013 the lowest in the world and consequently, India now boasts the world\u2019s highest data usage per smartphone at an average of ~11GB per month as of June 2019 (basis TRAI Q3 report).
As a direct consequence of this, 2019 also saw India become the 2nd largest smartphones user globally.
On the 5G front, the country welcomed the international spectrum treaty adopted by the World Radiocommunication Conference 2019 (WRC-19), which will unlock the potential for game-changing 5G services around the world.
WRC-19 identified much-needed spectrum in the millimetre wave frequencies of 26 GHz, 40 GHz and 66 GHz ranges for a broad range of new ultra-high-speed and ultra-low latency consumer, business and government services.
Innovative 5G services that rely on almost instantaneous delivery of large amounts of data are now possible because of this and will include virtual and augmented reality applications, remote control of industrial robots, autonomous vehicles, as well as entertainment services, such as being able to download 4K movies in seconds.
What was disappointing however was that India missed the bus to join some of the other countries to be early introducers of 5G; despite having done significant spadework the year before, wherein the Government led 5G High Level Forum through its expert groups deliberated and came out with clear policy formulation on various aspects of 5G viz. Spectrum Plan, Regulatory & Policy on Infrastructure, Skilling, Awareness & Promotion, Research, Development & IPR.
However, India has established itself on the global standardization map through the development and promotion of a homegrown 5G standard known as LMLC (Low Mobility Large Cell).
Despite some initial hiccups, finally the 5G Experimental Spectrum Rules were laid down and hopefully the 5G trials will now take off in FY 19-20.
This will hopefully help develop unique use cases and sustainable business models for 5G deployment.
It is imperative that exhaustive trials for 5G are conducted so as to establish robust use cases for India and facilitate seamless transition into the new technology and its applications.
The Digital Communications Commission (DCC), post its consultations with TRAI, has given its approval for the 5G Spectrum sale in the 3,300-3600 MHz bands.
At the same time, the focus on SatCom as an essential element to leverage the full potential of 5G, and an essential component of the Digital India mission, was also something highlighted and recognised in 2019.
Other initiatives that stood out<\/strong>
2019 saw a significant push by the government in line with the objectives set out in the NDCP 2018.
A renewed focus on bridging the digital divide saw an increased focus on accelerating the Bharat Net programme to improve rural broadband connectivity, particularly in the rural areas. However, right-of-way challenges still dodge speedy rollout of fibre across the country.
The government\u2019s tacit recognition of the relevance and importance of public Wi-Fi for the proliferation of broadband, especially in rural areas was immensely welcome.
Initiatives by the government and BSNL ensured that the number of public Wi-Fi hotspots increased from a meagre 30,000 to about 3.5 lakh over this year.
While this is just around 5% of the required benchmark of 80 lakh hotspots (based on internationally mandated figures of 1 hotspot for every 150 persons), it is heartening to see the steps being taken to clear the way for fully liberalized public Wi-Fi hotspots.
Going forward<\/strong>
There are some key challenges that continue to plague the sector and need to be addressed in 2020 with renewed vigour and commitment:
First is the focus on bridging the digital divide \u2013 there are still over a billion Indians without access to the internet and the challenge is to accelerate the rollout of the access to internet to these people \u2013 most of who live in geographically remote and rural areas.
In addition to speeding up the rollout of fiber that is facing delays due to right-of-way problems, enhancing the use of satellite broadband and public Wi-Fi hotspots is key to reaching these people and areas sooner.
The second is improving the minimum broadband speed \u2013 especially given that over 80% of data traffic today is video content. With an average speed of 4-6 Mbps, India seriously lags in this respect and ranks a dismal 100 globally.
Similarly, the rollout of public Wi-Fi needs to be accelerated. India moved from 30,000 to 3.5 lakh Wi-Fi hotspots. That number needs to reach 80 lakhs if India is to ensure that it has 1 Wi-Fi hotspot per 150 people (as per global norms).
Further, adopting the TRAI recommended WANI architecture could facilitate seamless Wi-Fi Roaming whereby people can easily access Wi-Fi on the move. BIF recommends adoption of WANI 2.0 that can provide access across technologies in a truly seamless manner.
WANI 2.0 can also be extremely useful in proliferation of IoT as it supports device-to-device communication.
Improving the telecom sector\u2019s business viability while meeting the ever-increasing demand for enhanced affordability is the other challenge that needs to be addressed.
India\u2019s telecom sector is arguably the most regulated and taxed sector, also reeling under a huge debt burden. These anomalies need to be corrected if the sector needs to flourish.
In relation to 5G, rational reserve prices for spectrum and a review of the current auction methodology is required to facilitate fullest market participation, otherwise there will be a risk of a failed auction that will also result in economic loss due to unsold spectrum going idle.
As we are not likely to be an early entrant to the 5G club, this can also be considered as a boon in some respect, as it will allow India to iron out several challenges that need to be addressed before implementing a full fledged 5G rollout.
India must establish its own unique use-cases prior to its 5G rollout, along with tapping the full potential of LTE-A\/LTE-Pro.
And finally, the troika of government, academia and industry need to come together to begin engagement on 6G research for development of world class standards and IP, stimulate manufacturing of 6G equipment, and in turn, help India truly secure its digital future.
It is much required that the government allocates appropriate funds for these research and standards development activities, as it had assigned for the 5G test beds.
Sectoral outlook for the next year<\/strong>
The next billion Indians who\u2019re yet to cross the digital divide offer huge untapped opportunity to Indian enterprise \u2013 including handset manufacturers and telcos.
If the data consumption of Indians is any indication, the outlook of the sector will continue to remain very positive for the immediate future.
This is further enhanced by the NDCP 2018 that is focused on spectrum auctions, rationalization of spectrum prices, steps to reduce financial stress, 5G roll out goals and right of way initiatives for the fiber rollout to ensure that the government\u2019s Digital India goals are being sustainably met.
The other significant issue is the continued organic growth of 4G into 4.5G which offers almost the same benefits of 5G and a smooth, well-thought through transition to 5G, that will also be a catalyst to the growth of use of AI and IoT across enterprises, and drive the creation of additional jobs that cater specifically to these emerging and enhanced technologies.
At the same time, the emergence and adoption of new and higher technologies would necessitate the need for advanced security measures, especially in relation to cybersecurity, 5G & IoT Security.
India being a large and diverse country, bringing cyber awareness, hygiene and safety education would be a humongous and challenging task.
Moreover, the explosion of IOT and Mobile end points in future and their associated security threats are a major potential risk that need to be addressed.
Standardisation of the technology and device protocols would be a key requirement in this regard and may help bring about more resiliency while adoption of security by design or security in-depth practices would also be needed.
Additionally, we believe that there is a need for an independent agency\/authority to whitelist or certify safe applications, devices, etc. which can be bought\/used by consumers\/businesses besides adopting practices of cyber awareness\/hygiene.
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随着2019年接近尾声,回首很有趣,看看it和电信行业发生了变化,不仅在个人技术概念,比如人工智能的发展,5 g和云计算,而且他们如何继续重塑技术,这个国家的经济和社会景观,从而影响企业,我们的工作和我们的生活。
的事情在技术,是人工智能的主流化、自动化和大数据分析。
主流企业和政府开始范围的可能性,使初始投资,我们也看到术语成为主要的日常词汇。
从积极的一面来看,可以说,大部分对话在电信部门在2019年由5 g,另一面是巨大的争议与“调整后的总收益”(AGR)出现在今年下半年。
最近最高法院的裁决在AGR已经无法想象的巨大的后果不仅仅是电信部门,但也为几个non-telecom领域巨大的负面影响。
例如,整个行业惊讶地看到,电源像盖尔了奖金共计超过十万的卢比。
不用说,主要和次要的厂商电信公司和电源会影响,最后但并非最不重要,许多公共部门银行的npa可能大幅上升。
政府考虑提供20年的付款方式与净现值(NPV)保护是一个受欢迎的一步,我们希望它被完成。
然而,这仍然是关于养护部门的基本不足的问题持续高频谱费、关税和其他税。要求与整体具有多重结算主要政策行动,既有利可图的和可行的。
鉴于电信行业的重要作用在整体经济,我们建议政府和行业制定结算,在该行业为客户提供实实在在的利益和政府方面的服务质量,扩大覆盖范围,新技术5 g,等等,政府将提供一个迁移方案,需要运营商远离AGR的有争议的问题,频谱价格高企,频谱的使用费用等。
取消当前系统的执照费的比例AGR自谱与执照不再捆绑,并征收每年固定费用的管理和监管成本(大约0.1%的AGR)将是一个适当的措施。
进一步,上述费用将覆盖无线规划和协调部门和成本的调节范围,从而无效需要征收的频谱使用电荷(往下)作为AGR的一部分,因此应该停止。
合理化的储备频谱价格,电信的生命线,是最关键的需要的部门和需要解决优先级。
一个强大的、有竞争力的电信业对国民经济至关重要,而大玩家不能被允许倒闭。
在移动互联网方面,4 g的加速部署在过去一年在移动数据消费带来了惊人的增长。
当我们徘徊在100位置移动数据消费在2016年,我们取得了第一流的位置在去年数据使用和消费。
三大电信运营商之间的竞争激烈的价格战过去3年也带来了免费的语音通话,确保最低数据率——世界上最低的,因此,印度现在拥有世界上最高的数据使用/智能手机平均~ 11 gb每月截止到2019年6月(基础火车第三季度的报告)。
作为一个直接后果,2019年也看到印度成为全球第二大智能手机用户。
在5克方面,中国欢迎国际光谱条约世界无线电通信大会通过2019 (WRC-19),这将释放潜在的改变游戏规则的5 g服务世界各地。
WRC-19确定急需的毫米波频率的频谱26 GHz, 40 GHz, 66 GHz范围广泛的新的超高速和超低延迟消费,商业和政府服务。
创新的5 g服务,依靠瞬时提供大量的数据现在可能因为这个和将包括虚拟和增强现实应用,工业机器人的远程控制,自主车辆,以及娱乐服务,如能够下载4 k电影在几秒钟内。
然而令人失望的是,印度没赶上公共汽车加入其他国家的一些早期对引荐5克;尽管做的重要的基础工作,在领导的政府5 g高水平论坛通过专家组审议和明确的政策制定出来的各个方面5 g即频谱计划,监管和政策基础设施,斯基林,意识与推广、研究、开发和知识产权。
然而,印度已确立了自身在全球标准化地图的开发和推广国产5 g标准称为LMLC(低流动性大细胞)。
尽管一些初始打嗝,最后5 g实验频谱规则制定,希望5 g试验将于19日至20日财政年度起飞。
这将有希望帮助开发独特的用例和5 g的可持续商业模式部署。
当务之急是详尽的试验5 g进行以建立健壮的用例对印度和促进无缝过渡到新技术及其应用。
数字通信委员会(DCC),与火车的磋商后,鉴于其批准的5 g频谱拍卖3300 - 3600 MHz频段。
同时,关注卫星通信作为一个至关重要的元素利用5 g的全部潜力,和一个印度数字任务的重要组成部分,也是突出的东西,2019年认可。
其他引人注目的举措
2019年重大推动政府与2018年NDCP目标。
重新关注弥合数字鸿沟看到关注加快巴拉特净增加计划,改善农村宽带连接,特别是在农村地区。然而,通行权的挑战仍然躲避快速推出全国纤维。
政府的默认的相关性和重要性公共无线宽带网络的普及,尤其是在农村地区是非常受欢迎的。
计划由政府和BSNL确保公共wi - fi热点的数量从微薄的30000增加到约3.5在今年多数。
虽然这只是大约5%的80年所需的基准十万的热点(根据国际规定的1热点每150人),这是令人鼓舞的步骤被清理的彻底开放公共wi - fi热点。
展望未来
有一些关键挑战,继续困扰该行业,需要解决在2020年以新的活力和承诺:
首先是关注弥合数字鸿沟——仍然有超过十亿的印度人没有接入互联网的挑战在于加快推出互联网访问这些人——大多数居住在地理位置偏远和农村地区。
除了加速纤维的推广面临延迟由于通行权问题,提高卫星宽带的使用和公共wi - fi热点是达到这些人的关键领域。
二是提高最低宽带速度——特别是考虑到今天的数据流量是视频内容的80%以上。平均4 - 6 Mbps的速度,印度在这方面严重滞后和排名全球低迷的100年。
同样,公共wi - fi的推出需要加速。印度从30000年3.5十万的wi - fi热点。如果印度,数量需要达到80卢比是确保每150人有1 wi - fi热点(按全球标准)。
此外,推荐采用火车万尼建筑可以促进无缝无线漫游,人们可以很容易地访问wi - fi。BIF建议采用万尼为2.0,可以提供在一个真正的技术无缝的访问方式。
万尼2.0也可以是非常有用的在扩散物联网支持设备间通信。
提高电信业的商业可行性,同时满足不断增长的需求增强的购买力是另一个需要解决的挑战。
印度电信行业可以说是最监管和征税部门也面临着一个巨大的债务负担。这些异常需要纠正如果部门需要蓬勃发展。
5克、合理储备频谱和审查目前的价格拍卖方法需要促进市场充分参与,否则将有一个拍卖失败的风险,也会导致经济损失由于未售出的空闲频谱。
我们不可能提前进入5克俱乐部,也可以在某些方面被认为是一个福音,因为它将允许印度解决之前需要解决的几个挑战实现一个完整的5 g推出。
印度必须建立自己独特的用例5 g推出之前,连同攻LTE-A / LTE-Pro的全部潜力。
最后,政府的三驾马车,学术界和产业界需要一起开始参与6克研究促进发展的世界级标准和IP,刺激制造6克的设备,并反过来,帮助印度真正安全数码的未来。
需要得多,政府为这些研究和标准开发活动分配适当的基金,因为它指定了5 g测试床。
部门明年的前景
下一个十亿印度人是没有跨越数字鸿沟为印度企业提供巨大的未开发的机会,包括手机制造商和电信公司。
如果数据消费的印度人有什么启示的话,那就是该行业的前景将继续为不久的将来非常积极。
这是进一步提高到2018 NDCP集中在频谱拍卖,频谱价格合理化措施减少财政压力,5 g推出目标和对纤维的方法措施推出,以确保印度政府的数字目标是可持续地满足。
其他重要的问题是4 g的持续有机增长到4.5 g提供几乎相同的好处5 g和光滑,高质量通过过渡到5克,这也将是一个催化剂,利用人工智能的发展和物联网企业,并驱动创建额外的工作,这些新兴和增强技术。
同时,和更高的新技术的出现和采用将非常需要先进的安全措施,尤其是在有关网络安全,5 g &物联网安全。
印度作为一个庞大且多元的国家,将网络意识、卫生和安全教育将是一个巨大无比的和具有挑战性的任务。
此外,未来物联网和移动端点的爆发及其相关的安全威胁主要需要解决的潜在风险。
标准化的技术和设备协议在这方面将是一个关键需求和可能帮助带来更多的弹性而采用的安全设计或安全深入实践也是需要的。
此外,我们相信,需要一个独立的机构/白名单或认证安全应用程序的权限,所使用的设备等,可以买/消费者/企业除了采用实践的网络/卫生意识。
的事情在技术,是人工智能的主流化、自动化和大数据分析。
主流企业和政府开始范围的可能性,使初始投资,我们也看到术语成为主要的日常词汇。
从积极的一面来看,可以说,大部分对话在电信部门在2019年由5 g,另一面是巨大的争议与“调整后的总收益”(AGR)出现在今年下半年。
最近最高法院的裁决在AGR已经无法想象的巨大的后果不仅仅是电信部门,但也为几个non-telecom领域巨大的负面影响。
例如,整个行业惊讶地看到,电源像盖尔了奖金共计超过十万的卢比。
不用说,主要和次要的厂商电信公司和电源会影响,最后但并非最不重要,许多公共部门银行的npa可能大幅上升。
政府考虑提供20年的付款方式与净现值(NPV)保护是一个受欢迎的一步,我们希望它被完成。
然而,这仍然是关于养护部门的基本不足的问题持续高频谱费、关税和其他税。要求与整体具有多重结算主要政策行动,既有利可图的和可行的。
鉴于电信行业的重要作用在整体经济,我们建议政府和行业制定结算,在该行业为客户提供实实在在的利益和政府方面的服务质量,扩大覆盖范围,新技术5 g,等等,政府将提供一个迁移方案,需要运营商远离AGR的有争议的问题,频谱价格高企,频谱的使用费用等。
取消当前系统的执照费的比例AGR自谱与执照不再捆绑,并征收每年固定费用的管理和监管成本(大约0.1%的AGR)将是一个适当的措施。
进一步,上述费用将覆盖无线规划和协调部门和成本的调节范围,从而无效需要征收的频谱使用电荷(往下)作为AGR的一部分,因此应该停止。
合理化的储备频谱价格,电信的生命线,是最关键的需要的部门和需要解决优先级。
一个强大的、有竞争力的电信业对国民经济至关重要,而大玩家不能被允许倒闭。
在移动互联网方面,4 g的加速部署在过去一年在移动数据消费带来了惊人的增长。
当我们徘徊在100位置移动数据消费在2016年,我们取得了第一流的位置在去年数据使用和消费。
三大电信运营商之间的竞争激烈的价格战过去3年也带来了免费的语音通话,确保最低数据率——世界上最低的,因此,印度现在拥有世界上最高的数据使用/智能手机平均~ 11 gb每月截止到2019年6月(基础火车第三季度的报告)。
作为一个直接后果,2019年也看到印度成为全球第二大智能手机用户。
在5克方面,中国欢迎国际光谱条约世界无线电通信大会通过2019 (WRC-19),这将释放潜在的改变游戏规则的5 g服务世界各地。
WRC-19确定急需的毫米波频率的频谱26 GHz, 40 GHz, 66 GHz范围广泛的新的超高速和超低延迟消费,商业和政府服务。
创新的5 g服务,依靠瞬时提供大量的数据现在可能因为这个和将包括虚拟和增强现实应用,工业机器人的远程控制,自主车辆,以及娱乐服务,如能够下载4 k电影在几秒钟内。
然而令人失望的是,印度没赶上公共汽车加入其他国家的一些早期对引荐5克;尽管做的重要的基础工作,在领导的政府5 g高水平论坛通过专家组审议和明确的政策制定出来的各个方面5 g即频谱计划,监管和政策基础设施,斯基林,意识与推广、研究、开发和知识产权。
然而,印度已确立了自身在全球标准化地图的开发和推广国产5 g标准称为LMLC(低流动性大细胞)。
尽管一些初始打嗝,最后5 g实验频谱规则制定,希望5 g试验将于19日至20日财政年度起飞。
这将有希望帮助开发独特的用例和5 g的可持续商业模式部署。
当务之急是详尽的试验5 g进行以建立健壮的用例对印度和促进无缝过渡到新技术及其应用。
数字通信委员会(DCC),与火车的磋商后,鉴于其批准的5 g频谱拍卖3300 - 3600 MHz频段。
同时,关注卫星通信作为一个至关重要的元素利用5 g的全部潜力,和一个印度数字任务的重要组成部分,也是突出的东西,2019年认可。
其他引人注目的举措
2019年重大推动政府与2018年NDCP目标。
重新关注弥合数字鸿沟看到关注加快巴拉特净增加计划,改善农村宽带连接,特别是在农村地区。然而,通行权的挑战仍然躲避快速推出全国纤维。
政府的默认的相关性和重要性公共无线宽带网络的普及,尤其是在农村地区是非常受欢迎的。
计划由政府和BSNL确保公共wi - fi热点的数量从微薄的30000增加到约3.5在今年多数。
虽然这只是大约5%的80年所需的基准十万的热点(根据国际规定的1热点每150人),这是令人鼓舞的步骤被清理的彻底开放公共wi - fi热点。
展望未来
有一些关键挑战,继续困扰该行业,需要解决在2020年以新的活力和承诺:
首先是关注弥合数字鸿沟——仍然有超过十亿的印度人没有接入互联网的挑战在于加快推出互联网访问这些人——大多数居住在地理位置偏远和农村地区。
除了加速纤维的推广面临延迟由于通行权问题,提高卫星宽带的使用和公共wi - fi热点是达到这些人的关键领域。
二是提高最低宽带速度——特别是考虑到今天的数据流量是视频内容的80%以上。平均4 - 6 Mbps的速度,印度在这方面严重滞后和排名全球低迷的100年。
同样,公共wi - fi的推出需要加速。印度从30000年3.5十万的wi - fi热点。如果印度,数量需要达到80卢比是确保每150人有1 wi - fi热点(按全球标准)。
此外,推荐采用火车万尼建筑可以促进无缝无线漫游,人们可以很容易地访问wi - fi。BIF建议采用万尼为2.0,可以提供在一个真正的技术无缝的访问方式。
万尼2.0也可以是非常有用的在扩散物联网支持设备间通信。
提高电信业的商业可行性,同时满足不断增长的需求增强的购买力是另一个需要解决的挑战。
印度电信行业可以说是最监管和征税部门也面临着一个巨大的债务负担。这些异常需要纠正如果部门需要蓬勃发展。
5克、合理储备频谱和审查目前的价格拍卖方法需要促进市场充分参与,否则将有一个拍卖失败的风险,也会导致经济损失由于未售出的空闲频谱。
我们不可能提前进入5克俱乐部,也可以在某些方面被认为是一个福音,因为它将允许印度解决之前需要解决的几个挑战实现一个完整的5 g推出。
印度必须建立自己独特的用例5 g推出之前,连同攻LTE-A / LTE-Pro的全部潜力。
最后,政府的三驾马车,学术界和产业界需要一起开始参与6克研究促进发展的世界级标准和IP,刺激制造6克的设备,并反过来,帮助印度真正安全数码的未来。
需要得多,政府为这些研究和标准开发活动分配适当的基金,因为它指定了5 g测试床。
部门明年的前景
下一个十亿印度人是没有跨越数字鸿沟为印度企业提供巨大的未开发的机会,包括手机制造商和电信公司。
如果数据消费的印度人有什么启示的话,那就是该行业的前景将继续为不久的将来非常积极。
这是进一步提高到2018 NDCP集中在频谱拍卖,频谱价格合理化措施减少财政压力,5 g推出目标和对纤维的方法措施推出,以确保印度政府的数字目标是可持续地满足。
其他重要的问题是4 g的持续有机增长到4.5 g提供几乎相同的好处5 g和光滑,高质量通过过渡到5克,这也将是一个催化剂,利用人工智能的发展和物联网企业,并驱动创建额外的工作,这些新兴和增强技术。
同时,和更高的新技术的出现和采用将非常需要先进的安全措施,尤其是在有关网络安全,5 g &物联网安全。
印度作为一个庞大且多元的国家,将网络意识、卫生和安全教育将是一个巨大无比的和具有挑战性的任务。
此外,未来物联网和移动端点的爆发及其相关的安全威胁主要需要解决的潜在风险。
标准化的技术和设备协议在这方面将是一个关键需求和可能帮助带来更多的弹性而采用的安全设计或安全深入实践也是需要的。
此外,我们相信,需要一个独立的机构/白名单或认证安全应用程序的权限,所使用的设备等,可以买/消费者/企业除了采用实践的网络/卫生意识。
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Of the things that stood out in technology, was the mainstreaming of AI, automation and Big Data analytics.
Mainstream companies and the government began scoping out its possibilities and making initial investments into it and we also saw the terminologies became a staple of everyday lexicon.
On the positive side while it may be said that most conversations in the telecom sector in 2019 were dominated by 5G, the flip side was the huge controversy linked to \u2018Adjusted Gross Revenue\u2019 (AGR) that surfaced in the latter part of the year.
The Supreme Court\u2019s recent verdict on AGR has had unimagined mammoth consequences for not just the telecom sector, but also huge negative impacts for several non-telecom sectors.
For example, the entire industry is taken aback to see that PSUs like GAIL are hit with pay-outs to the tune of over a lakh crore rupees each.
Needless to say, major and minor vendors to telcos and PSUs would get impacted and, last but not least, the NPAs of many public sector banks could rise sharply.
The government\u2019s consideration of offering a 20-year payment term with the Net-Present-Value (NPV) protected is a welcome step and we do hope it gets finalised.
However, this would still be inadequate with regards to curing the sector\u2019s basic problems of continued high spectrum fees, other tariffs and taxes. What is required is major policy action with holistic multi-sided settlement, to be both profitable and viable.
Given the critical role that the telecom industry plays in the overall economy, we would recommend for the government and the industry to work out a settlement, wherein the industry would offer tangible benefits to both customers and the government through aspects of Quality of Service, extended coverage, new technologies like 5G, etc. and, the Government would provide a migration package that takes the operators away from the contentious issues of AGR, high spectrum prices, spectrum usage charge, etc.
Scrapping the current system of licence fee as a percentage of AGR since spectrum is no more bundled with licence, and levying an annual fixed fee to cover the administration and regulation costs (about 0.1% of the present AGR) would be an appropriate measure.
Further, the above fee would cover the cost to the wireless planning and coordination department and that of regulating spectrum, thereby invalidating the need for levy of Spectrum Usage Charge (SUC) as part of AGR, which should hence be discontinued.
Rationalisation of the reserve prices for Spectrum, the life-blood of telecommunications, is the most critical need for the sector and needs to be addressed on priority.
A robust and competitive telecom sector is essential for the national economy, and big players cannot be allowed to fail as such.
On the mobile internet front, the acceleration of 4G deployments in the past one year has brought about staggering growth in mobile data consumption.
While we were languishing at around the 100th position in mobile data consumption in 2016, we have achieved numero-uno position in data usage and consumption last year.
A highly competitive price war between the three main telcos over the past 3 years also brought in free voice-calls and ensured rock bottom data rates \u2013 the lowest in the world and consequently, India now boasts the world\u2019s highest data usage per smartphone at an average of ~11GB per month as of June 2019 (basis TRAI Q3 report).
As a direct consequence of this, 2019 also saw India become the 2nd largest smartphones user globally.
On the 5G front, the country welcomed the international spectrum treaty adopted by the World Radiocommunication Conference 2019 (WRC-19), which will unlock the potential for game-changing 5G services around the world.
WRC-19 identified much-needed spectrum in the millimetre wave frequencies of 26 GHz, 40 GHz and 66 GHz ranges for a broad range of new ultra-high-speed and ultra-low latency consumer, business and government services.
Innovative 5G services that rely on almost instantaneous delivery of large amounts of data are now possible because of this and will include virtual and augmented reality applications, remote control of industrial robots, autonomous vehicles, as well as entertainment services, such as being able to download 4K movies in seconds.
What was disappointing however was that India missed the bus to join some of the other countries to be early introducers of 5G; despite having done significant spadework the year before, wherein the Government led 5G High Level Forum through its expert groups deliberated and came out with clear policy formulation on various aspects of 5G viz. Spectrum Plan, Regulatory & Policy on Infrastructure, Skilling, Awareness & Promotion, Research, Development & IPR.
However, India has established itself on the global standardization map through the development and promotion of a homegrown 5G standard known as LMLC (Low Mobility Large Cell).
Despite some initial hiccups, finally the 5G Experimental Spectrum Rules were laid down and hopefully the 5G trials will now take off in FY 19-20.
This will hopefully help develop unique use cases and sustainable business models for 5G deployment.
It is imperative that exhaustive trials for 5G are conducted so as to establish robust use cases for India and facilitate seamless transition into the new technology and its applications.
The Digital Communications Commission (DCC), post its consultations with TRAI, has given its approval for the 5G Spectrum sale in the 3,300-3600 MHz bands.
At the same time, the focus on SatCom as an essential element to leverage the full potential of 5G, and an essential component of the Digital India mission, was also something highlighted and recognised in 2019.
Other initiatives that stood out<\/strong>
2019 saw a significant push by the government in line with the objectives set out in the NDCP 2018.
A renewed focus on bridging the digital divide saw an increased focus on accelerating the Bharat Net programme to improve rural broadband connectivity, particularly in the rural areas. However, right-of-way challenges still dodge speedy rollout of fibre across the country.
The government\u2019s tacit recognition of the relevance and importance of public Wi-Fi for the proliferation of broadband, especially in rural areas was immensely welcome.
Initiatives by the government and BSNL ensured that the number of public Wi-Fi hotspots increased from a meagre 30,000 to about 3.5 lakh over this year.
While this is just around 5% of the required benchmark of 80 lakh hotspots (based on internationally mandated figures of 1 hotspot for every 150 persons), it is heartening to see the steps being taken to clear the way for fully liberalized public Wi-Fi hotspots.
Going forward<\/strong>
There are some key challenges that continue to plague the sector and need to be addressed in 2020 with renewed vigour and commitment:
First is the focus on bridging the digital divide \u2013 there are still over a billion Indians without access to the internet and the challenge is to accelerate the rollout of the access to internet to these people \u2013 most of who live in geographically remote and rural areas.
In addition to speeding up the rollout of fiber that is facing delays due to right-of-way problems, enhancing the use of satellite broadband and public Wi-Fi hotspots is key to reaching these people and areas sooner.
The second is improving the minimum broadband speed \u2013 especially given that over 80% of data traffic today is video content. With an average speed of 4-6 Mbps, India seriously lags in this respect and ranks a dismal 100 globally.
Similarly, the rollout of public Wi-Fi needs to be accelerated. India moved from 30,000 to 3.5 lakh Wi-Fi hotspots. That number needs to reach 80 lakhs if India is to ensure that it has 1 Wi-Fi hotspot per 150 people (as per global norms).
Further, adopting the TRAI recommended WANI architecture could facilitate seamless Wi-Fi Roaming whereby people can easily access Wi-Fi on the move. BIF recommends adoption of WANI 2.0 that can provide access across technologies in a truly seamless manner.
WANI 2.0 can also be extremely useful in proliferation of IoT as it supports device-to-device communication.
Improving the telecom sector\u2019s business viability while meeting the ever-increasing demand for enhanced affordability is the other challenge that needs to be addressed.
India\u2019s telecom sector is arguably the most regulated and taxed sector, also reeling under a huge debt burden. These anomalies need to be corrected if the sector needs to flourish.
In relation to 5G, rational reserve prices for spectrum and a review of the current auction methodology is required to facilitate fullest market participation, otherwise there will be a risk of a failed auction that will also result in economic loss due to unsold spectrum going idle.
As we are not likely to be an early entrant to the 5G club, this can also be considered as a boon in some respect, as it will allow India to iron out several challenges that need to be addressed before implementing a full fledged 5G rollout.
India must establish its own unique use-cases prior to its 5G rollout, along with tapping the full potential of LTE-A\/LTE-Pro.
And finally, the troika of government, academia and industry need to come together to begin engagement on 6G research for development of world class standards and IP, stimulate manufacturing of 6G equipment, and in turn, help India truly secure its digital future.
It is much required that the government allocates appropriate funds for these research and standards development activities, as it had assigned for the 5G test beds.
Sectoral outlook for the next year<\/strong>
The next billion Indians who\u2019re yet to cross the digital divide offer huge untapped opportunity to Indian enterprise \u2013 including handset manufacturers and telcos.
If the data consumption of Indians is any indication, the outlook of the sector will continue to remain very positive for the immediate future.
This is further enhanced by the NDCP 2018 that is focused on spectrum auctions, rationalization of spectrum prices, steps to reduce financial stress, 5G roll out goals and right of way initiatives for the fiber rollout to ensure that the government\u2019s Digital India goals are being sustainably met.
The other significant issue is the continued organic growth of 4G into 4.5G which offers almost the same benefits of 5G and a smooth, well-thought through transition to 5G, that will also be a catalyst to the growth of use of AI and IoT across enterprises, and drive the creation of additional jobs that cater specifically to these emerging and enhanced technologies.
At the same time, the emergence and adoption of new and higher technologies would necessitate the need for advanced security measures, especially in relation to cybersecurity, 5G & IoT Security.
India being a large and diverse country, bringing cyber awareness, hygiene and safety education would be a humongous and challenging task.
Moreover, the explosion of IOT and Mobile end points in future and their associated security threats are a major potential risk that need to be addressed.
Standardisation of the technology and device protocols would be a key requirement in this regard and may help bring about more resiliency while adoption of security by design or security in-depth practices would also be needed.
Additionally, we believe that there is a need for an independent agency\/authority to whitelist or certify safe applications, devices, etc. which can be bought\/used by consumers\/businesses besides adopting practices of cyber awareness\/hygiene.
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