降低压力对印度的电信设备产业蓬勃发展
“刺覆盖主要的电信设备,除了光纤,国内设备制造商可以利用价值50000卢比的市场机遇,到2025财年预计将翻一番,“Chaudhary说。
Tele-Talk新鲜的花,深入分析和观点从受人尊敬的行业领导者
Some 85-90% of the domestic demand for telecom gear is driven by wireless network investments of telcos. So the call on equipment industry growth will be a function of how much they invest \u2013 leveraging internal accrual and debt.
The domestic equipment industry missed the previous wireless capital expenditure (capex) boom driven by aggressive rollouts of 4G networks between fiscals 2016 and 2021, as telcos largely depended on vendors in China and other east-Asian countries.
Imports accounted for around three quarters of the equipment demand of telcos. But open radio access network (RAN) and the Government of India\u2019s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme promise to ring in a new future.
PLI and 5G to boost the telecom equipment industry
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/img.etb2bimg.com\/files\/cp\/upload-16318567375903-image1.png\")
<\/strong>Source: DoT, CRISIL Research
<\/em>Earlier, RAN deployments, comprising over three-fourths of the investments, remained proprietary in nature, and hence, were not accessible to smaller vendors. The advent of open RAN \u2013 by ending the proprietary set-up \u2013 results in the disaggregation of hardware and software at radio sites. That would allow domestic equipment makers to manufacture and innovate in individual modules (such as antennas and remote radio heads), or more contemporary forms of radio nodes (such as small cells). Globally, open RAN deployment is expected to gain traction from fiscal 2023, as capex in 5G picks up.
5G networks, by their nature, are investment-intensive. They entail at least 70% tower fiberisation levels (from 30-35% at present) and 4-20 times higher radio site deployments compared with 4G. This would lead to higher investments in optical and radio networks, respectively.
The PLI scheme has been timed well ahead of the 5G launch. It has the potential to reduce the share of telecom imports in overall demand to under 50%.
The scheme, launched for the telecom equipment industry in February this year, earmarks ~Rs 12,200 crore as incentives for sales generated over the base year (fiscal 2020) and expects to draw an investment of Rs 3,000-4,000 crore. That translates to an incentive-to-capex ratio of 4:1, the highest among all PLI schemes.
With PLIs covering major telecom equipment, except optical fibers, domestic gear manufacturers could leverage a Rs 50,000-crore market opportunity, which is expected to double by fiscal 2025.
But what could throw a spanner in the works is the stress in the telecom services industry and low capex in research and development.
How bad is the stress among telcos?<\/strong>
Last fiscal, telecom operators saw an improvement in operational parameters driven by the December 2019 tariff hikes, customer upgradations and spike in data usage amid the pandemic.
However, delays in further tariff hikes, removal of interconnect usage charges and impact of the second Covid-19 wave have proved a mixed bag for players in the first quarter of this fiscal.
Bharti Airtel saw its subscriber base remain flat sequentially at ~32 crore. Its Arpu and Ebitda margin were Rs 146 and 49.2% respectively, compared with Rs 145 and 47.5% in the previous quarter. However, subscriber base showed healthy rise on-year (15% overall and 33% for 4G users).
Reliance Jio reported 4% growth sequentially in its subscriber base to ~44 crore. Its Arpu and Ebitda margin stayed flat at Rs 140 and 46.9%, respectively, weighed down by the second wave.
Vodafone-Idea continued to see a deterioration in its operating parameters. Its subscriber base was down to 26 crore, a 5% fall sequentially. Arpu and Ebitda margin were Rs 104 and 40.5%, respectively, down from Rs 107 and 45.9% the previous quarter. However, its 4G user base grew 8% on-year to 11 crore.
Pandemic has had a mixed impact on the telcos
<\/strong>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/img.etb2bimg.com\/files\/cp\/upload-16318569163028-image3.png\")
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research
<\/em>Despite consolidation in the industry over the past three years and one round of tariff hikes in December 2019, telecom Arpus are lower than fiscal 2017 levels.
Tariff hikes and relief measures are key for investments
In the upcoming quarters, CRISIL Research foresee a moderate rise in Arpu driven by higher customer upgradations and tariff increases across lower-end and postpaid plans. However, any large increase in Arpu hinges on tariff hikes in the prepaid smartphone segment, which constitutes over 70% of the telecom industry\u2019s revenue.
Competitive pressures are stalling further hikes. The industry also stares at a hefty regulatory payout of ~Rs 25,000-30,000 crore in fiscal 2023, when moratorium on spectrum payment ends. At the same time, players are expected to gradually scale up 5G investments as auctions are likely next calendar year.
To meet all the payment obligations and achieve the desired capex, players will need to improve internal accruals and raise additional funding.
Operating metrics looking up, but Arpu still below FY17 levels<\/strong>
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/img.etb2bimg.com\/files\/cp\/upload-16318570083256-image2.png\")
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research<\/em>
How could they resource this, if not through tariff hikes? One way would be a reduction in levies. Currently, telcos have to pay licence fee and spectrum usage charges at 8% and 3-5% respectively, of adjusted gross revenue. Lowering this combined outgo of 11-13% to 6-7% could increase operating profits by 10-15%.
Setting floor prices in telecom tariffs could be another. That could enable all players to hike prices without any competitive pressures. A floor price of ~Rs 20 per GB can result in Arpu improving to Rs 175-180 even after assuming some downtrading in customers and data usage.
These measures would improve the cash flow position of players, help them raise additional funds to invest, and in turn, drive the success of the PLI scheme and brighten the industry outlook.
","blog_img":"retail_files\/blog_1631857190_temp.jpg","posted_date":"2021-09-17 11:09:52","modified_date":"2021-09-17 11:09:52","featured":"0","status":"Y","seo_title":"Dial down the stress for India's telecom equipment industry to flourish","seo_url":"dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish","url":"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/tele-talk\/dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish\/5092","url_seo":"dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish"}">
的黎明5克电话几乎,政策和技术转移合并创建一个更高的国内电信设备需求的跳板。但是压力在电信服务部门可以拨回的潜力。
大约85 - 90%的国内电信设备需求是由无线网络投资的电信公司。所以呼吁设备产业增长将他们投资多少的函数,利用内部利息和债务。
前国内设备行业错过了无线资本支出(资本支出)繁荣由积极开展财政2016年和2021年之间的4 g网络,电信公司很大程度上依赖于供应商在中国和其他东亚国家。
进口占约四分之三的电信公司的设备需求。但开放的无线接入网络(RAN)和印度的政府根据激励计划(PLI)承诺,在一个新的未来。
PLI和5克电信设备行业
来源:CRISIL的点,研究
早些时候,跑的部署,包括超过四分之三的投资,保持专有的性质,因此,没有访问规模较小的供应商。开跑的出现,结束了专有的设置,导致崩溃的硬件和软件在无线电站点。允许国内设备制造商生产和创新在单个模块中(如天线和远程无线头),或更多的当代形式的无线节点(如小细胞)。在全球范围内,打开运行部署预计将从2023财年获得牵引力,5 g增加资本支出。
5 g网络,从本质上说,的投资性。他们需要至少70%的塔fiberisation水平(目前30 - 35%)和4倍无线电站点部署与4 g。这将导致更高的投资在光学和无线电网络,分别。
PLI方案的时间远远超过5克。它有可能减少电信进口的份额在总需求50%以下。
电信设备行业的计划,发起了今年2月,专项拨款~ 12200卢比作为销售激励产生的基准年(2020财年),预计将吸引3000 - 4000卢比的投资。翻译incentive-to-capex 4:1的比例,最高的在所有照明灯具方案。
刺覆盖主要电信设备,除了光学纤维,国内设备制造商可以利用价值50000卢比的市场机遇,到2025财年预计将翻一番。
但是可能扰乱电信服务行业的工作是压力和较低的资本支出在研究和开发。
电信运营商之间的压力有多坏?
去年的财政,电信运营商看到了改善操作参数由2019年12月关税上涨,客户升级和数据使用的激增在大流行。
然而,延迟进一步提高关税,取消第二Covid-19互连使用费用和影响波来说,这些都是好坏参半球员在第一季度财政。
Bharti Airtel其用户数量保持不变~ 32卢比的顺序。Arpu, Ebitda利润率分别为Rs 146和49.2%,相比之下,Rs 145年和前一个季度的47.5%。然而,用户数量显示健康同比上升为4 g用户(15%和33%)。
依赖Jio报告顺序增长4%的用户基础~ 44个卢比。Arpu, Ebitda利润率保持平坦的Rs 140和46.9%,分别拖累第二波。
Vodafone-Idea继续恶化其操作参数。其用户基础是26个卢比,按顺序下降了5%。Arpu Ebitda利润率Rs 104和40.5%,分别从Rs 107年和前一个季度的45.9%。然而,其4 g用户同比增长8%至11卢比。
大流行混合对电信公司的影响
资料来源:公司报告,CRISIL的研究
尽管整合该行业在过去三年一轮的关税上调2019年12月,电信arpu低于财政2017年的水平。
税率和救济措施的关键投资
在即将到来的季度,CRISIL的研究预测适度提高Arpu由更高的客户升级和提高关税在低端和邮资已付的计划。然而,任何大型Arpu取决于税率增加预付费智能手机市场,这是超过70%的电信行业的收入。
竞争压力是拖延进一步上涨。这个行业也盯着巨额监管支付~ 25000 - 30000卢比在2023财政年度,暂停频谱付款结束后。同时,玩家将逐渐扩大5 g投资拍卖有可能下一个日历年。
满足所有的付款义务,实现所需的资本支出,玩家将需要改善内部权责发生额和筹集更多资金。
操作指标查找,但Arpu仍低于FY17水平
资料来源:公司报告,CRISIL的研究
他们怎么能资源,如果不是通过提高关税?一种方法是减少征税。目前,电信公司必须支付许可费和频谱使用费用分别为8%和3 - 5%,调整后的总收益。降低这个组合11 - 13%到6 - 7%的支出会增加营业利润了10 - 15%。
设置在电信楼价格关税可能是另一个。能让所有玩家上调价格没有竞争压力。20 ~ Rs / GB的底价可以导致Arpu提高Rs 175 - 180即使假设一些downtrading客户和数据使用。
这些措施将提高球员的现金流状况,帮助他们筹集额外资金来投资,反过来,开普兰的成功方案和照亮的行业前景。
大约85 - 90%的国内电信设备需求是由无线网络投资的电信公司。所以呼吁设备产业增长将他们投资多少的函数,利用内部利息和债务。
前国内设备行业错过了无线资本支出(资本支出)繁荣由积极开展财政2016年和2021年之间的4 g网络,电信公司很大程度上依赖于供应商在中国和其他东亚国家。
进口占约四分之三的电信公司的设备需求。但开放的无线接入网络(RAN)和印度的政府根据激励计划(PLI)承诺,在一个新的未来。
PLI和5克电信设备行业
来源:CRISIL的点,研究
早些时候,跑的部署,包括超过四分之三的投资,保持专有的性质,因此,没有访问规模较小的供应商。开跑的出现,结束了专有的设置,导致崩溃的硬件和软件在无线电站点。允许国内设备制造商生产和创新在单个模块中(如天线和远程无线头),或更多的当代形式的无线节点(如小细胞)。在全球范围内,打开运行部署预计将从2023财年获得牵引力,5 g增加资本支出。
5 g网络,从本质上说,的投资性。他们需要至少70%的塔fiberisation水平(目前30 - 35%)和4倍无线电站点部署与4 g。这将导致更高的投资在光学和无线电网络,分别。
PLI方案的时间远远超过5克。它有可能减少电信进口的份额在总需求50%以下。
电信设备行业的计划,发起了今年2月,专项拨款~ 12200卢比作为销售激励产生的基准年(2020财年),预计将吸引3000 - 4000卢比的投资。翻译incentive-to-capex 4:1的比例,最高的在所有照明灯具方案。
刺覆盖主要电信设备,除了光学纤维,国内设备制造商可以利用价值50000卢比的市场机遇,到2025财年预计将翻一番。
但是可能扰乱电信服务行业的工作是压力和较低的资本支出在研究和开发。
电信运营商之间的压力有多坏?
去年的财政,电信运营商看到了改善操作参数由2019年12月关税上涨,客户升级和数据使用的激增在大流行。
然而,延迟进一步提高关税,取消第二Covid-19互连使用费用和影响波来说,这些都是好坏参半球员在第一季度财政。
Bharti Airtel其用户数量保持不变~ 32卢比的顺序。Arpu, Ebitda利润率分别为Rs 146和49.2%,相比之下,Rs 145年和前一个季度的47.5%。然而,用户数量显示健康同比上升为4 g用户(15%和33%)。
依赖Jio报告顺序增长4%的用户基础~ 44个卢比。Arpu, Ebitda利润率保持平坦的Rs 140和46.9%,分别拖累第二波。
Vodafone-Idea继续恶化其操作参数。其用户基础是26个卢比,按顺序下降了5%。Arpu Ebitda利润率Rs 104和40.5%,分别从Rs 107年和前一个季度的45.9%。然而,其4 g用户同比增长8%至11卢比。
大流行混合对电信公司的影响
资料来源:公司报告,CRISIL的研究
尽管整合该行业在过去三年一轮的关税上调2019年12月,电信arpu低于财政2017年的水平。
税率和救济措施的关键投资
在即将到来的季度,CRISIL的研究预测适度提高Arpu由更高的客户升级和提高关税在低端和邮资已付的计划。然而,任何大型Arpu取决于税率增加预付费智能手机市场,这是超过70%的电信行业的收入。
竞争压力是拖延进一步上涨。这个行业也盯着巨额监管支付~ 25000 - 30000卢比在2023财政年度,暂停频谱付款结束后。同时,玩家将逐渐扩大5 g投资拍卖有可能下一个日历年。
满足所有的付款义务,实现所需的资本支出,玩家将需要改善内部权责发生额和筹集更多资金。
操作指标查找,但Arpu仍低于FY17水平
资料来源:公司报告,CRISIL的研究
他们怎么能资源,如果不是通过提高关税?一种方法是减少征税。目前,电信公司必须支付许可费和频谱使用费用分别为8%和3 - 5%,调整后的总收益。降低这个组合11 - 13%到6 - 7%的支出会增加营业利润了10 - 15%。
设置在电信楼价格关税可能是另一个。能让所有玩家上调价格没有竞争压力。20 ~ Rs / GB的底价可以导致Arpu提高Rs 175 - 180即使假设一些downtrading客户和数据使用。
这些措施将提高球员的现金流状况,帮助他们筹集额外资金来投资,反过来,开普兰的成功方案和照亮的行业前景。
免责声明:作者的观点仅和ETTelecom.com不一定订阅它。乐动体育1002乐动体育乐动娱乐招聘乐动娱乐招聘乐动体育1002乐动体育ETTelecom.com不得负责任何损害任何个人/组织直接或间接造成的。
Some 85-90% of the domestic demand for telecom gear is driven by wireless network investments of telcos. So the call on equipment industry growth will be a function of how much they invest \u2013 leveraging internal accrual and debt.
The domestic equipment industry missed the previous wireless capital expenditure (capex) boom driven by aggressive rollouts of 4G networks between fiscals 2016 and 2021, as telcos largely depended on vendors in China and other east-Asian countries.
Imports accounted for around three quarters of the equipment demand of telcos. But open radio access network (RAN) and the Government of India\u2019s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme promise to ring in a new future.
PLI and 5G to boost the telecom equipment industry
<\/strong>Source: DoT, CRISIL Research
<\/em>Earlier, RAN deployments, comprising over three-fourths of the investments, remained proprietary in nature, and hence, were not accessible to smaller vendors. The advent of open RAN \u2013 by ending the proprietary set-up \u2013 results in the disaggregation of hardware and software at radio sites. That would allow domestic equipment makers to manufacture and innovate in individual modules (such as antennas and remote radio heads), or more contemporary forms of radio nodes (such as small cells). Globally, open RAN deployment is expected to gain traction from fiscal 2023, as capex in 5G picks up.
5G networks, by their nature, are investment-intensive. They entail at least 70% tower fiberisation levels (from 30-35% at present) and 4-20 times higher radio site deployments compared with 4G. This would lead to higher investments in optical and radio networks, respectively.
The PLI scheme has been timed well ahead of the 5G launch. It has the potential to reduce the share of telecom imports in overall demand to under 50%.
The scheme, launched for the telecom equipment industry in February this year, earmarks ~Rs 12,200 crore as incentives for sales generated over the base year (fiscal 2020) and expects to draw an investment of Rs 3,000-4,000 crore. That translates to an incentive-to-capex ratio of 4:1, the highest among all PLI schemes.
With PLIs covering major telecom equipment, except optical fibers, domestic gear manufacturers could leverage a Rs 50,000-crore market opportunity, which is expected to double by fiscal 2025.
But what could throw a spanner in the works is the stress in the telecom services industry and low capex in research and development.
How bad is the stress among telcos?<\/strong>
Last fiscal, telecom operators saw an improvement in operational parameters driven by the December 2019 tariff hikes, customer upgradations and spike in data usage amid the pandemic.
However, delays in further tariff hikes, removal of interconnect usage charges and impact of the second Covid-19 wave have proved a mixed bag for players in the first quarter of this fiscal.
Bharti Airtel saw its subscriber base remain flat sequentially at ~32 crore. Its Arpu and Ebitda margin were Rs 146 and 49.2% respectively, compared with Rs 145 and 47.5% in the previous quarter. However, subscriber base showed healthy rise on-year (15% overall and 33% for 4G users).
Reliance Jio reported 4% growth sequentially in its subscriber base to ~44 crore. Its Arpu and Ebitda margin stayed flat at Rs 140 and 46.9%, respectively, weighed down by the second wave.
Vodafone-Idea continued to see a deterioration in its operating parameters. Its subscriber base was down to 26 crore, a 5% fall sequentially. Arpu and Ebitda margin were Rs 104 and 40.5%, respectively, down from Rs 107 and 45.9% the previous quarter. However, its 4G user base grew 8% on-year to 11 crore.
Pandemic has had a mixed impact on the telcos
<\/strong>
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research
<\/em>Despite consolidation in the industry over the past three years and one round of tariff hikes in December 2019, telecom Arpus are lower than fiscal 2017 levels.
Tariff hikes and relief measures are key for investments
In the upcoming quarters, CRISIL Research foresee a moderate rise in Arpu driven by higher customer upgradations and tariff increases across lower-end and postpaid plans. However, any large increase in Arpu hinges on tariff hikes in the prepaid smartphone segment, which constitutes over 70% of the telecom industry\u2019s revenue.
Competitive pressures are stalling further hikes. The industry also stares at a hefty regulatory payout of ~Rs 25,000-30,000 crore in fiscal 2023, when moratorium on spectrum payment ends. At the same time, players are expected to gradually scale up 5G investments as auctions are likely next calendar year.
To meet all the payment obligations and achieve the desired capex, players will need to improve internal accruals and raise additional funding.
Operating metrics looking up, but Arpu still below FY17 levels<\/strong>
Source: Company reports, CRISIL Research<\/em>
How could they resource this, if not through tariff hikes? One way would be a reduction in levies. Currently, telcos have to pay licence fee and spectrum usage charges at 8% and 3-5% respectively, of adjusted gross revenue. Lowering this combined outgo of 11-13% to 6-7% could increase operating profits by 10-15%.
Setting floor prices in telecom tariffs could be another. That could enable all players to hike prices without any competitive pressures. A floor price of ~Rs 20 per GB can result in Arpu improving to Rs 175-180 even after assuming some downtrading in customers and data usage.
These measures would improve the cash flow position of players, help them raise additional funds to invest, and in turn, drive the success of the PLI scheme and brighten the industry outlook.
","blog_img":"retail_files\/blog_1631857190_temp.jpg","posted_date":"2021-09-17 11:09:52","modified_date":"2021-09-17 11:09:52","featured":"0","status":"Y","seo_title":"Dial down the stress for India's telecom equipment industry to flourish","seo_url":"dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish","url":"\/\/www.iser-br.com\/tele-talk\/dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish\/5092","url_seo":"dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish"},img_object:["retail_files/blog_1631857190_temp.jpg","retail_files/author_1631856460_87968.jpg"],fromNewsletter:"",newsletterDate:"",ajaxParams:{action:"get_more_blogs"},pageTrackingKey:"Blog",author_list:"Isha Chaudhary",complete_cat_name:"Blogs"});" data-jsinvoker_init="_override_history_url = "//www.iser-br.com/tele-talk/dial-down-the-stress-for-india-s-telecom-equipment-industry-to-flourish/5092";">
